Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Shocking New Iowa Poll

A new poll from the First Caucus State of Iowa was just released today, and it has some very shocking numbers.  First, the not-shocking part is that Establishment favorite Mitt Romney continues to hold a narrow lead, with 21 percent of the vote.  However while it also isn't surprising that Sarah Palin is in second with 15 percent, what is absolutely shocking is that she is tied for second with Herman Cain!  The former head of Godfather's Pizza has zoomed up to 15 percent in Iowa, totally shocking.  Newt Gingrich is in 4th, still with 12 percent of the vote despite his scandals and huge sleaze factor, Michelle Bachmann has climbed into the double digits, scoring a 5th place showing with 11 percent of the vote, Tim Pawlenty also has double digits now in 6th place with 10 percent, Ron Paul sadly is all the way back in 7th place in this poll with just 8 percent of the vote, ahead of only John Huntsman, who has 0 percent (he literally only got 1 vote in the entire polling sample). 

This poll tells us a lot of things, first of course that name recognition and being the Establishment's Man is still good for first place in Iowa, at least right now, and it also shows that Governor Palin is still a major force in Iowa politics, despite having done virtually nothing to boost her standing there.  However what's much more interesting about this poll is how the lesser known Conservatives are doing, particularly Mr Herman Cain.  As a successful Businessman and cancer survivor, Herman Cain brings powerful leadership skills to the table.  He seems to have a strong Conservative resume as well, no doubt that especially helps in a state like Iowa.  The fact is that Cain has very little money, and is zooming up pretty much entirely due to the strength of his South Carolina Debate performance, and subsequent interviews.  I don't know much about the man, but from what little I do know he seems like a very genuine and likable fellow, somebody who is extremely qualified and very trustworthy.  I look forward to seeing and hearing more from this excellent candidate.

Another part of the poll that might be a bit surprising is that Newt Gingrich still somehow has 12 percent of the vote, I guess thats entirely due to name recognition, because he's alienated so many people at this point its a wonder he's even still in the race.  Michelle Bachmann continues to climb in the poll, she's up to 11 percent, and she's one of those candidates who would probably benefit most should Newt continue to sink.  Tim Pawlenty is somehow at 10 percent despite basicly being a bland, boring nobody.  And Ron Paul does surprisingly poorly in this poll, the only major candidate to not be in the double digits, albeit he's close at 8 percent.  Certainly you could say that he's within the margin of error for 4th place, so many candidates are packed so close together, and of course if you looked at Ron Paul this time in 2007 he was at about 1 percent in Iowa, and still managed to get 10 percent of the vote in both the Ames Straw Poll and on Caucus Night.  His starting point this time around is thus eight times stronger, and by that logic he will finish on Caucus night with 80 percent of the vote....OK maybe not :) .  But this much stronger starting point definitely gives him a much better shot at winning the Caucuses, and he's also much stronger on the ground this time around in advance of the critical Ames Straw Poll in August , which could go a very long way toward making Ron the man to beat come Caucus night. 

So some major developments in the 2012 Presidential Race, stay tuned to the Gladiator Blog for more coverage of Election 2012!

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