The 2020 US Election is upon us, and no doubt you've heard many so-called experts give you their prognostications, and no doubt most of those 'experts' knew very little about what was really happening, simply told you whatever the Media Polls said, and probably by the time you were done listening to them you actually knew less about what was really going on than you did before, not more. Well, if you're looking for real, hard news and numbers, not fake, agenda driven numbers, look no further! I'm going to give you hard numbers, that will show you who is really ahead, by how much, and who is likely to win each race. I'm of course primarily going to focus on the Presidential Election, but I'm going to give you some information you probably haven't seen anywhere else about who is really winning key House and Senate races, which will determine who controls the Congress next year. So let's begin!
First, I'd like to begin by stating that my source for these numbers is a company called 'TargetSmart' that tracks Election information for a living, they find out who has voted, and use an in-depth system to determine who they likely voted for. Thanks to the high level spying that mega corporations are allowed to do on the rest of us, companies can figure out pretty easily how most of us voted, just by looking at the wide range of information they have on us. It's terrible the Government allows them to do that to us, but in this particular case it provides highly useful information, so we might as well take advantage of it!
You've probably heard that the Democrats will dominate the Early Vote, Republicans will dominate the Election Day vote, and whoever does the better job overall wins. That, of course, is essentially true, but the first thing I'm going to point out is that Democrats are doing much, much less well in the Early Vote than the Media Polls said they would. Republicans are trailing in the Early Vote in most states, but not all, and in a great many states where they do trail, the numbers are surprisingly close, suggesting that they will win those states very handily when the Election Day vote results come in. Let me give you some specific examples.
We'll start with the ultimate Bell-weather state, Florida. Everyone watches Florida, and earlier in the Early Voting portion of the race, Democrats had opened up a strong Double Digit lead in the state, leading by many hundreds of thousands of votes. However now, with just a couple days to go, Republicans have come storming back, and not only have they pulled within 100,000 votes (general thinking before the Early Voting process began was that Democrats would need a lead of around 650,000 votes going into Election Day to win the state, because Republicans should win big on Election Day itself, as usual), but in fact according to the TargetSmart model, Republicans are not only currently within 100,000 votes, they are in fact in the lead! Whichever way you look at it, Republicans are poised to not just win Florida, but to win Florida big. That's big news, but it's big news you won't hear from the media, because it doesn't favor their favorite candidate.
Some other very important states that the model shows Republicans leading outright in the Early Voting include Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, and Republicans are less than 2 tenths of a percentage point behind in Nevada. Those are very important states, and Republicans have essentially negated the Democrat Early Vote advantage in each of them, which suggests that those states will be won very handily indeed by President Trump on Election Day, when the Election Day voting comes in.
Other states where Republicans have held the Democrat Early Vote advantage to single digits include: Iowa (5 points), North Carolina (2 points), Michigan (4 points), Wisconsin (1 point), and Colorado (5 points). These are very important Swing States, and the fact that Democrats weren't able to run up a large early vote lead as they were expected to, suggests that they also could be won decisively by the President once the Election Day voters go to the polls.
All of this points to the same basic direction, and that is that assuming the President's voters turn out on Election Day, as even the Media Polls say they will, he should easily win enough Swing States to comfortably win Re-Election. This isn't something the Media or the Democrat Party (though I suppose I repeat myself) want you to know, but the data is clear, and now you know it.
So now that you know that President Trump is likely to be Re-Elected, you'd probably like to also know whether Nancy Pelosi is likely to remain Speaker of the House, or whether the Republicans are likely to gain enough seats to regain control of the House of Representatives once again. Well, I can tell you that the data is very clear on this point as well. Republicans lead in many House seats currently held by Democrats, and again, this is in the Early Vote when Democrats are expected to have a big advantage, so any Democrat Incumbant who is already behind is all but certain to lose on Election Day. When you add those seats (which include multiple House seats in Minnesota, Michigan, Texas, and even Virginia), to many other House seats where the Democrat does lead, but by much less than they would be expected to need lead by in order to win at this point, you see quite clearly that there are more than enough seats for Republicans to win and regain control of the House of Representatives, again assuming that Republican voters turn out on Election Day as everyone, even those on the Democrat side in the media, expect them to do.
What about the US Senate? Could Democrats take back the Senate? Or will Republicans maintain control? As you probably know, Republicans currently have 53 Seats in the Senate, and need to hold 51 to keep control (or only 50 if President Trump wins Re-Election, which we now know is very likely to happen). Which seats are most likely to change hands? Generally speaking, the Republican Seats considered most vulnerable to switching include seats in Colorado, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina. If they lose all 4, they would lose control of the Senate, unless they gained other seats. Right now however, as we've seen, Republicans are looking very strong in Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina. Democrats are doing well in Maine, and the Republican Senate candidate in Colorado is considered to be a very weak candidate who could fail to capitalize on his President and his Party's strength. Even if he does, that would still leave Republicans at 51, given that they are likely to hold onto Iowa and North Carolina. But what if somehow those candidates somehow failed also? Well, Republicans have a very important advantage. Two of them, in fact. In Alabama, Republicans are considered all but certain to win the Senate seat currently held by the Democrats, which would immediately bring them back to 50 seats. And Republicans are also likely to win the Senate Seat in Michigan, where the Republican candidate is considered to be very strong, and should run ahead of however his Party performs, which as it turns out, the President and the Republican Party are already running very strongly in Michigan, so the Republican Senate Candidate should win his race even more easily. Also, Republicans have a long-shot chance to win the Minnesota Senate Seat also. It's not currently considered likely, but it's close enough that it is possible. It shouldn't matter to which Party ultimately controls the Senate either way, but just in case it does it would be one to watch on Election Night.
So now you know the truth that the media doesn't want to tell you, Republicans are poised to win the Presidency, the House, and the Senate in the Election just 2 days from today. Of course as the saying goes, a day is an eternity in politics, and anything can happen between now and Election Day. But as of right now, Republicans are very well poised to win control of both the Presidency and the Congress once again. It should be a huge news story right now, but the media will only report it if the voters force them to. Time will tell if that happens. Stay tuned!
