Iowa Straw Poll Results Huge Boost for Ron Paul

Yesterday in Ames, Iowa, the GOP candidates had the biggest Straw Poll of the campaign.  Normally in a Straw Poll, not that many people vote, but the Iowa Straw Poll is different.  Very, very different.  It works much more like an actual Primary and less like a Straw Poll.  There are busses, there are major financial investments, it's a tremendous test of a candidate's organization and appeal.  While there were many candidates making a huge push in Iowa, it ultimately came down to two major candidates, Michelle Bachmann, who is actually from Iowa, and Ron Paul.  In the final standings, Michelle Bachmann received 4823 votes, or 29 percent of the total votes cast (there were in fact well over 16 thousand votes cast, the second highest number EVER), slightly ahead of Dr Paul's 4671 votes, or 28 percent.  However it drops WAY off from there, as Tim Pawlenty scored a very disappointing 2293 votes (less than HALF Ron Paul's tally), 14 percent.  Fourth place was Rick Santorum, who got 1657 votes, or 10 percent, followed closely by Pizza Superstar Herman Cain with 1456 votes, 9 percent of the total votes cast.  Sixth was actually a write in campaign by Rick Perry's supporters, Rick got 718 votes, a poor showing to be sure, but less poor than Mitt Romney's 567 votes, which put him in an embarassing 7th place.  Gingrich (385 votes, 2 percent), Huntsman (69 votes, 0.4 percent), and McCotter (35 votes, 0.2 percent) rounded out the top ten. 

At first blush this might seem like a bit of a disappointment for Ron Paul, after all he didn't win, he tried to win, he wanted to win, but he didn't win, Michelle Bachmann did.  However, there are a number of reasons why that first blush isn't at all accurate, that this is in fact not just a win but a HUGE win for Ron Paul, and they are very much worth noting.  First, the simple fact that Michelle Bachmann is FROM Iowa, a fact she uses constantly in her campaign.  She is the 'favorite son' candidate, and anytime a favorite son doesn't win in a landslide, if an opponent just finishes within 10 points or so of them, that's a victory for the runner up.  Take the classic example of Bill Clinton in New Hampshire, in 1992.  He finished with 25 percent, behind 'favorite son' Senator Paul Tsongas of neighboring Massachusetts, who had 33 percent of the vote.  That 8 point loss was seen as a HUGE win for Bill, a 'win' that gave him huge momentum, the nomination, and the White House.  There are of course many other such examples, but the key point is, you don't have to beat a favorite son candidate, they're extremely tough to beat, but if you can simply finish close to them, its very much like a win.

Another reason why this was a huge win for Ron Paul is because in fact, aside from the Favorite Son Bachmann, Ron Paul DID in fact win huge, VERY huge!  Ron Paul defeated EVERY candidate who isn't from Iowa (Bachmann) by a GREATER THAN 2-1 MARGIN.  That's not just a win, that's a MAJOR landslide!  Tim Pawlenty, who practicly moved to Iowa, who spent a huge amount of money on radio and TV ads, he got less than half Ron's votes.  Rick Santorum, who likewise practically became a resident of Iowa in his attempt to do well at Ames, finished greater than 2 1/2 to 1 behind Ron.  Herman Cain, a fun and interesting candidate, the man who once headed up Godfather's Pizza, got less than 1/3 of Ron's votes.  Of course, the so-called 'front runner' candidates, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, got SPANKED, Rick beaten better than 6-1, Romney beaten better than 8-1 by Ron.  Clearly there is indeed a Front-Runner from Texas, but it ain't Perry, it's Congressman Ron Paul!

There is however some bad news to report, and it may actually be the reason why Ron didn't just win first place straight out at the Straw Poll.  It seems that since the debate on Thursday night, the big guns have been turned on Ron.  His comments at the Debate against going to war with Iran have sparked tremendous outcry from certain pro-war talk radio folks, most notably Rush Limbaugh, who basicly called Ron Paul and his supporters crazy.  Its ironic that he would so mean-spiritedly attack the only candidate in the race who wouldn't have put him in jail for his own past drug use.  Dick Morris called Ron a 'flake'.  Also, Glenn Beck has both attacked Ron and actually endorsed Bachmann (he said that as of right now, he would vote for her, of course he can't fully endorse anybody until Sarah Palin announces her intentions).  The long knives are out, and they just might sting a bit, but the good news is they're running scared, they're using up their firepower early, and Ron has got plenty of time to absorb their incoming fire, and come back stronger than ever.  The American People are on the side of Peace and Prosperity, Freedom and following the Constitution.  As such, these vicious attacks are merely one more obstacle to overcome on the road to the nomination, and the White House!

So for all those reasons, and more, Ron Paul is better positioned to become the Republican nominee, and the next President of the United States, than any other candidate in the race.  If you thought he 'couldn't win' before, yesterday proved that couldn't be further from the truth.  He most definitely 'can' win, and there's an excellent chance that he WILL win!  Stay tuned to the Gladiator Blog for continued Campaign 2012 updates, this campaign is really getting good! 

Major Straw Poll This Weekend

For those of you who don't yet know, there's a major straw poll this weekend down in Louisiana.  It's the Republican Leadership Conference, which holds a Straw Poll each year.  Last year Mitt Romney won by ONE VOTE over Ron Paul, I think Sarah Palin came in 3rd.  Can Mitt win again, or will Ron gain some major campaign momentum by winning an event Mitt won last year?  Or will someone else altogether surprise them all, like Michelle Bachmann or Herman Cain?  It's high drama on the Bayou!  Stay tuned to the Gladiator Blog to find out the full results, which from what I understand will be available on Sunday, although actual voting has already begun, so if you want a say in who the next President is but you don't live in Iowa or New Hampshire, you might want to head down to this event and help your favorite candidate score some major Campaign Momentum!

Massive Ron Paul Fundraising

For the second time in this election cycle alone, Ron Paul scored big with a 'Money Bomb'.  A money bomb is a 1 day fundraising event in which people 'bomb' the campaign with money, you may recall recently Congressman Bachmann raised around 200K on her money bomb day, by contrast Ron Paul raised 1.1 Million dollars yesterday.  During the previous campaign, late in 2007 the Ron Paul campaign held the first ever 'money bomb', in which it raised over 6 million dollars in a single day, setting a record for fundraising in one day.  Since then, other campaigns have begun employing money bombs also, to varying degrees of success.  Earlier this year, on the day of the SC Debate, the Ron Paul campaign held a money bomb and raised over a million dollars then also.  There are many more money bombs planned throughout the year, the next one being July 4th.  Despite news reports of Mitt Romney being the big moeny candidate, and that he raised 10 million dollars in one day, the reality is he didn't actually raise 10 million dollars in cash, he raised 10 million dollars in Pledges.  A money bomb, on the other hand, brings in actual campaign cash, money in the bank that can be used immediately for the campaign.  Which is more valuable, a million dollars in the bank, or 10 million dollars in pledges?  You can judge that for yourself, but I'm sure that Ron Paul is quite a bit happier to have his moeny in the bank than Mitt Romney is with having 'pledged' money. 

Today's money bomb money will be a huge help as Ron prepares go toe to toe with Mitt and the others in the crucial Iowa Straw Poll, which is held in August.  That straw poll will go a long ways in separating the Pretenders from the Contenders.  In 2007 Ron Paul was polling at about 1 percent in Iowa, but got 10 percent in the Iowa Straw Poll, good enough for 4th place.  That year the Fox News Channel reported, and I promise you I'm not making this up as insane as it sounds, the results for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th place.  So despite unprecented media bias against his campaign, he greatly overperformed his current standing in the polls at the time, and in fact went on to score another 10 percent showing during the Iowa Caucuses themselves.  This year Ron is at 8 percent in the most recent Iowa poll, with Romney at 21, and Sarah Palin and Herman Cain tied with 15 each.  So the field is wide open, and there's no reason why Ron can't finish either first or a strong second.  Between now and the Straw Poll Ron's campaign has to keep building support, and building infrastructure.  Iowa, being a Caucus state, simply cannot be won by a campaign without boots on the ground.  Ron's campaign is strong and growing in Iowa, he and Romney will likely be the two best organized candidates in Iowa come Straw Poll time, and its definitely possible that Ron's campaign will be the very best of the bunch.  So the bottom line for now is, another bigtime fundraising day for the Paul campaign, a day that will help his already strong Iowa campaign organization get even stronger!  

Shocking New Iowa Poll

A new poll from the First Caucus State of Iowa was just released today, and it has some very shocking numbers.  First, the not-shocking part is that Establishment favorite Mitt Romney continues to hold a narrow lead, with 21 percent of the vote.  However while it also isn't surprising that Sarah Palin is in second with 15 percent, what is absolutely shocking is that she is tied for second with Herman Cain!  The former head of Godfather's Pizza has zoomed up to 15 percent in Iowa, totally shocking.  Newt Gingrich is in 4th, still with 12 percent of the vote despite his scandals and huge sleaze factor, Michelle Bachmann has climbed into the double digits, scoring a 5th place showing with 11 percent of the vote, Tim Pawlenty also has double digits now in 6th place with 10 percent, Ron Paul sadly is all the way back in 7th place in this poll with just 8 percent of the vote, ahead of only John Huntsman, who has 0 percent (he literally only got 1 vote in the entire polling sample). 

This poll tells us a lot of things, first of course that name recognition and being the Establishment's Man is still good for first place in Iowa, at least right now, and it also shows that Governor Palin is still a major force in Iowa politics, despite having done virtually nothing to boost her standing there.  However what's much more interesting about this poll is how the lesser known Conservatives are doing, particularly Mr Herman Cain.  As a successful Businessman and cancer survivor, Herman Cain brings powerful leadership skills to the table.  He seems to have a strong Conservative resume as well, no doubt that especially helps in a state like Iowa.  The fact is that Cain has very little money, and is zooming up pretty much entirely due to the strength of his South Carolina Debate performance, and subsequent interviews.  I don't know much about the man, but from what little I do know he seems like a very genuine and likable fellow, somebody who is extremely qualified and very trustworthy.  I look forward to seeing and hearing more from this excellent candidate.

Another part of the poll that might be a bit surprising is that Newt Gingrich still somehow has 12 percent of the vote, I guess thats entirely due to name recognition, because he's alienated so many people at this point its a wonder he's even still in the race.  Michelle Bachmann continues to climb in the poll, she's up to 11 percent, and she's one of those candidates who would probably benefit most should Newt continue to sink.  Tim Pawlenty is somehow at 10 percent despite basicly being a bland, boring nobody.  And Ron Paul does surprisingly poorly in this poll, the only major candidate to not be in the double digits, albeit he's close at 8 percent.  Certainly you could say that he's within the margin of error for 4th place, so many candidates are packed so close together, and of course if you looked at Ron Paul this time in 2007 he was at about 1 percent in Iowa, and still managed to get 10 percent of the vote in both the Ames Straw Poll and on Caucus Night.  His starting point this time around is thus eight times stronger, and by that logic he will finish on Caucus night with 80 percent of the vote....OK maybe not :) .  But this much stronger starting point definitely gives him a much better shot at winning the Caucuses, and he's also much stronger on the ground this time around in advance of the critical Ames Straw Poll in August , which could go a very long way toward making Ron the man to beat come Caucus night. 

So some major developments in the 2012 Presidential Race, stay tuned to the Gladiator Blog for more coverage of Election 2012!